UK market review - number 28, 2011

Steady progress along a challenging path

Sutherland Street SW1, £2.25 million guide

LONDON MARKET COMMENT

Cash is king

...but the underlying 'problem' is London's success

The year to date has, for us at least, been remarkably active with overall sales volumes up by no less than 30% and our number of lettings up by around 12%. Outside the top end of the prime central London market, we are selling primarily to UK residents and, a little counterintuitively, both capital values and rental yields have risen (or, in the case of the latter, at least kept pace). In any market, this is a sure indicator of an underlying, physical shortage of stock. A distinctive feature of this one is the dominance, even at the lower price levels, of cash-rich buyers.

Steady progress along a challenging path

Lower Sunbury, £1.195 million guide

In the upper price levels, cash purchasers have long been the norm. That's not to say that none of the buyers of the several £4 million+ houses we have sold in SW3 and W11 this year has taken out a loan. Some have, but they have tended to be relatively short term, essentially corporate loans to wealthy buyers from overseas. Still in central London, but under the £1 million mark, traditional mortgages have been more common, but the great majority of our sales this year have been either to pure cash buyers from overseas or, just as often, to UK residents with at least 50% equity. Even at our lowest price levels in central London (realistically, around £320,000), we are struggling to identify a single buyer this year who has had less than 30% equity. Most have had far more.

Nor does the picture change much as one moves out of town. Our Teddington and Weybridge offices, for example, have enjoyed a string of sales of riverfront flats, all at around £400,000 and sold to mortgage-free retirees selling a larger house. Of other sales at around this price level, the great majority involve either no mortgage, or one of 40% or less.

Steady progress along a challenging path

Whitfield St W1, £2.995 million guide

So whilst foreigners and wealthy Brits hold up capital values and the banks remain cautious, more modestly-heeled owners with substantial equity can move around – and are doing so. This leaves many without such equity either unable or unwilling to enter the market. They must live somewhere though, hence the shortage of properties to let and rising rents. Some would-be owners believe – indeed hope – that an increase in sterling or interest rates (neither of which are in immediate prospect) might prompt London property prices to get back to their historic, 'price-to-earnings' norm. This, however, ignores an underlying difference to earlier times. In addition to overall population growth over recent decades and global /macroeconomic factors which are making it even more attractive (the summer's problems appear to have had little impact), London now has a far higher number of highly educated, high earning residents than ever before. And they all have, or want, a high quality home of their own. London's number of dwellings, meanwhile, has barely risen. Under the circumstances, it's not surprising that prices are, by some measures, at a real terms high. This also suggests that, a massive increase in house building or an exodus from the capital notwithstanding, even when cash ceases to be such a factor, it will simply mean that buyers are borrowing more. Again.

Steady progress along a challenging path

Wimbledon SW19, £12,000 pcm