In response to the HMRC property transactions data published today, Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, comments:
"This morning’s HMRC figures revealing a year-on-year decline in property transactions largely reflect the exceptional surge in activity seen in March last year, rather than any deterioration in today’s market conditions. With over 160,000 transactions recorded in March 2025, activity reached unusually elevated levels as buyers brought forward purchases ahead of the Stamp Duty threshold changes, creating a temporary distortion in the annual comparison.
"This is a pattern that has been seen before in policy-driven markets, most notably in 2021 when activity spiked sharply ahead of the end of the Covid-era Stamp Duty holiday before normalising once the incentive was removed. In June 2021, monthly transactions rose to in excess of 200,000, illustrating the scale of the short-term pull-forward effect. In both instances, it is policy timing rather than underlying demand that has driven the volatility in the data.
"Stripping out these effects, underlying market conditions today remain broadly steady. Transaction levels in recent months have shown little volatility, suggesting a consistent level of activity despite the headline movement in the annual figures.
"Against this backdrop, today’s data lands alongside the Bank of England’s interest rate decision this afternoon, where rates are widely expected to be held. That stability in monetary policy should help maintain the current steady tone in the housing market rather than prompt any meaningful shift in momentum."
