Property’s “Blind Watchmaker”. Has technology been in the driving seat, all along?
One recent academic report on the psychology of buying and selling property found that householders typically suffer from an “illusion of control” over what buyers will pay. Another argues strongly that control lies not with Adam Smith’s invisible hand of the market, but with technologies of typically unpredictable impact. They are launched with no more vision of where they will take us, than has evolution – Richard Dawkins’ ‘blind watchmaker’ – of how it will shape the natural world. Specifically, the argument is put that the property boom and bust of c. 1998 - 2008, was a direct consequence of rapid growth in online property listings and mortgage application systems, during that period. Technology, the research paper argues, opened up and sped up the market as never before, pushing up sales, prices and mass ‘irrational exuberance’ (more psychology), leading to overshoot and crash.
Leaving aside the role of credit relaxation in that particular cycle, the broader truth about the role of technology starts to look obvious when one considers other instances: commuter suburbs, for example, only became possible with the advent of railways.
Rather more recently, 370,000 homes in England have been transferred from housing to holiday use since 2009, because that is when Airbnb launched. In a change unforeseen by UK policy makers, Airbnb technology and that of its subsequent online rivals now handles a number of holiday homes equivalent to roughly 10% of the country’s shortfall in places to live. Meanwhile, amid the continuing hype around the latest shiny technology (artificial intelligence) feedback from our offices around the country, supported by formal research, suggests that the impact of one technology-enabled phenomenon is, if anything, being under-stated. Having been anticipated and hoped for, for some time, flexible hybrid working is, for those in a position to benefit, now having a visibly positive effect on family and community life. In doing so, it has created a marked shift in what and where buyers of country houses, want to buy.
While fully remote working remains rare, 40% of the UK workforce now has some capacity to work from home⁴. Amongst Jackson-Stops buyers of working age, that figure is much higher. Working one or two days each week from home, along with flexible practices such as starting work at home and travelling an hour or two later, is the norm. A welcome perk for some, enabling them to avoid rush hour crushes and peak train fares, for those with young children and commitments to community groups, it is proving to be an enormous boon. As the graph below demonstrates, there is great confidence that the beneficial effects of hybrid working are real and growing.
This is most clearly evident where our buyers are predominantly commuters. Remarkable, too, is the high proportion of couples requiring an office each. This affects demand, especially as those who often work from home prefer an office that is at least a little separate from the house; in an annexe or garden room, say, rather than a converted bedroom.
IMPACT ON DEMAND AND VALUES
Our figures and other reports indicate strongly that the effects of hybrid, flexible working include:
- Higher demand for larger homes with separate offices. Immediately post-Covid, the prices of larger homes grew more than twice as much as smaller houses. Prices have since fallen back, but the demand differential remains.
- Higher demand further from train stations, because buyers commuting less frequently, value extra house and garden space, over a very short drive to the station.
- Higher demand beyond traditional commuter belts, as those attending in person less often, accept journeys of two hours or more in favour of better value.
THE NEXT TECHNOLOGY?
Though some larger employers of office staff are pushing for full in-person attendance, they are in a clear minority. Hybrid working appears to be one benefit unavailable to earlier generations, which those working now, can enjoy and are determined to retain.
Looking ahead, where might other new technologies lead us, blindly or otherwise? AI promises to accelerate existing trends towards remote working and ‘smart’ buildings and neighbourhoods, without obviously creating new ones. It is hard to predict change, because potential is rarely fulfilled. Zoom launched in 2013, after other sharing technologies such as Apple’s iCloud (2011) and Dropbox (2008). Yet without the globally simultaneous impact of the pandemic, working from home would probably still be waiting for wide acceptance. Today, electric bikes can negate the obstacle of minor landscape undulations, making neighbourhoods designed around cycling, which are common in the Low Countries, practical here. Major gains, too, have been made in building-specific systems for solar energy, water collection and treatment, and hydroponic horticulture. Together, these hold the potential for super-eco apartment buildings, self-sufficient in energy, water and even, to some extent, food. Ultimately though, regardless of their intended purpose or potential, the use or neglect of such technologies will depend upon action, public or private. Evolution needs no consent, but technology, does. Collectively, we are in the driving seat.
